George Pappas Jr – Sports Betting Strategy
One thing’s for sure, betting on sports is not an easy task. No matter how many stats favor your prediction, no matter how accurate it seems, it’s not always as it seems. From my experience, stats play just a small role in picking the correct winner or game total. Trends also play a small part; however, emotion is what ultimately determines a winner.
Trends are meant to be broken, as are stats. Unless you’re the Anaheim Ducks hosting the Calgary Flames, that’s a sure bet that stretches back 26+ games when these two meet in Anaheim. It recently carried over into the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs, as the Ducks swept the Flames out of the building.
To have the slightest chance of making money while betting on sports, you must read as many articles as you can. From beat writers to almost every interview between the media and players. It won’t happen right away, but you will start feeling the emotion coming from every word you read, and before you know it, you will have your mind set on a particular team to win.
Once you figure out the emotional edge in sports betting, next comes how many bets you should place. The books want you to bet as much as possible on a daily basis, and you being not a dummy, why not steer into the opposite direction?
Work all the games for that current night, scratch off the majority of your leans, and commit to 1-2 picks. If possible, 1 pick per night. It’s going to be a hard task, especially if the picks you took off paper end up winning, but that’s just how it is. Do yourself a favor, throw away that paper after you commit to one pick, and move on. If you get wrapped up in the past, you will end up losing focus, and you will end up losing it all.
Your emotions will get the best of you.
As for how much to bet, don’t go crazy. Unless you have extreme patience and can wait a few days or more before placing a bet. If you can do that, you should still bet within your means, but slightly larger than normal.
Here’s a tip I was once told and still stick with to this day. Look at the upcoming schedule for the week, any sport you are interested in. Take a piece of paper and jot down games you would be interested in. Take those number of games and divide it by your current bankroll.
For example, if you have a $1,000 bankroll and have 12 games written down for the week, you will be risking about $84 per game. Round up making it $85.
Now, remember, you are going for quality, not quantity, you will not make bets in all 12 games. After breaking down those 12 games by emotion, you will probably end up with just 5-7 bets. Then use the $85 to bet per pick. The betting amounts seem small; however, you will be better off for the long haul.